Magic Formula Investing

Using the Magic Formula for investing; based on "The Little Book that Beats the Market" I started a real life test with $50,000 of my own money. The blog described the process, thoughts, pain and ongoing updates on this adventure.

Friday, February 16, 2007

Less is more !!!

After one year of MFI I have come to the conclusion that "less is more" in terms of analysis of the stocks I buy and own. Well, not 100% less (or complete faith) - meaning no self research, but anything more than 5 minutes per stock is not a good idea for myself.
There is always a reason that a stock is on the MFI list -- earnings hike is just a one-time thing; future earnings outlook is dreadful because industry in total decline (check business - forgot the name - did not buy the stock); oil field is somewhere in Africa and political problems (EGY); copper prices are only up temporarily (FCX); all business is with one customer who may choose to take a hike (my nightmare with Portalplayer) -- there is always a reason and you should be able to see the reason within 5 minutes. Usually there is a break in the chart and all you have to do is check for the news around that time.
Once I am past the 5 minute mark and especially if I don't see the obvious reason - I am in trouble, because I start "liking" the stock more than I should. I just could not understand why Portalplayer was on the list with being part of the most successful consumer product this decade (IPOD) -- so I bought more stock "outside" of my MFI portfolio - BIG mistake.
The almost made the same mistake with Grubb-Ellis - the commercial real estate company - I can't figure out why the stock is so low. There are buy-outs in the industry - the stock is valued very low and Grubb-Ellis has a good name. I can't quite figure out the ownership situation and classes of stocks they have sold - which I think is the reason the stock is not doing very well. But I went beyond my 5 minutes and spent a lot of time on this and it is just not very useful.
Blind faith - or picking at total random has not worked either. I picked my May portfolio of 7 stocks at random and they are not doing so well (about 2% gain vs 15 for indexes). There were 2 stocks in particular, I almost knew would be dogs right after I bought them - National Dentex and Toptanker.
So in the future, I am going to stick to the 5 minute rule and finding the reason, each stock is on the MFI - but that's just for me.

1 Comments:

Blogger Marsh_Gerda said...

I don't disagree. I have also foun out that the stocks I thought were better in many instances weren't.

Looks like you have had a great Feb!

MG

2:19 AM  

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